By Matt Smith
SouthernPigskin.com

Follow us at Twitter.com/SouthernPigskin.  Become a fan at the SouthernPigskin.com Facebook Page

Las Vegas doesn’t know everything, but it sometime seems like they do.

Every summer, sportsbooks release projected win totals for many college football teams. They analyze historical trends, schedules, and a slew of other information to come up with a number that will take in equal money on each side of the number. However, there is always value to be had. Here are your five best over/under win total bets for the 2011 season.

Win totals courtesy of BODOG

LSU – Under 9.5

LSU still has major quarterback questions, and must replace their three leaders on defense. Add in arguably the most difficult schedule in the country, and you have a recipe for a very disappointing season in Baton Rouge. Last year’s team needed some good fortune to finish 10-2, and will need more Les Miles magic to do the same in 2011. LSU faces two of the top three teams in the country away from home, and travels to Starkville on a Thursday night and a no-longer-alcohol-free Mountaineer Field in consecutive weeks. They also close with two perennial headaches for the Tigers, Ole Miss and Arkansas. After having karma on their side in 2010, the tables will turn in 2011.

Iowa – Over 8.5

The Hawkeyes are at their best when expectations are low, as they are in 2011 with major losses in the backfield and on the defensive front. However, the schedule does the Hawkeyes plenty of favors. They will be favored in eight of their first nine games, with the only exception being a trip to Penn State, a team the Hawkeyes have defeated in eight of their last nine meetings. The Hawkeyes miss both Ohio State and Wisconsin, get Michigan State at Kinnick Stadium, and play Nebraska on a short week after the Cornhuskers’ back-to-back road trips to Penn State and Michigan. Iowa has a great chance to play in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.

Texas Tech – Under 7.5

Tommy Tuberville managed seven wins in his first season in Lubbock, but outside of an upset of Missouri in a hangover game for the Tigers, the Red Raiders were not competitive against the Big 12’s best teams, and were blown out at Iowa State. Tech must break in a new quarterback and running back, and have a new defensive coordinator after James Willis was let go. Another thing going against the Red Raiders are three of their key toss-up games – Texas, Missouri, and Baylor, are all on the road. Tech should continue their longest streak of bowl appearances in the conference, but seven wins will be the ceiling.

Boise State – Over 10

It’s a two-game season for the Broncos – vs. Georgia in the season opener in Atlanta and a home game vs. TCU in mid-November. The only other Mountain West title contender, Air Force, also must come to Boise, so there aren’t really any landmines for the Broncos to navigate. 10-2 would be a very disappointing record in Kellen Moore’s final season, as the Broncos should be favored in all 12 games. They’ve proven they’re not afraid of the big stage, going 2-0 in BCS bowls and winning a virtual road game last year against Virginia Tech at FedEx Field. Expect a return to the BCS this year for Chris Petersen’s team.

USC – Over 7.5

While the Trojans are once again ineligible for the postseason, there is no shortage of talent in Los Angeles. Matt Barkley is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and USC was the victim of come misfortune and last-minute losses. Stanford and Washington both needed last-second field goals to beat the Trojans, and Ronald Johnson dropped a likely game-winning touchdown pass against Notre Dame. The Trojans play in the softer of the two Pac-12 divisions, and open with three home games. Stanford must come to the Coliseum, and the “road” game at California will be played at AT&T Park due to stadium renovations in Berkeley. The Trojans will win at least eight games for the 10th straight season.

Agree? Disagree? Other best bets? Share your thoughts below or email [email protected].