I know H1N1 killed more but that’s looking at a very narrow data point. H1N1 has run it’s course. It’s probably still around every now and then but it’s not a special threat. Two things are VERY important basics in the threat a virus causes, Basic Reproduction Number(Ro) and Mortality Rate. WHO calls the H1N1 Ro to be 1.4-3.5 while the seasonal flu is about 1.3. WHO’s estimates for COVID19 is 2-2.5 in a February 24th report listed below and wiki shows it as 1.4-3.9. All of the COVID numbers are working off of limited data at this point. Testing is greatly lacking so we don’t know the actual numbers on it yet. Based on current estimates it will spread similarly to H1N1 so it will get to A LOT of people. Mortality rate is the next important data point. H1N1 killed a very small percentage of the people it infected (~.02%). Currently the maps are showing 7,115 deaths and 78,085 recoveries. I use recoveries and not cases (181,200) because the virus hasn’t run it’s course with the others which could end in death. This gives us a mortality rate of 8.35% which is 417 times deadlier. Will this number come down? Yes it’s very likely. Estimates have the mortality rate ranging from 1% to 4.5% but I don’t think anyone has been able to settle on a number because it’s still VERY early in the spreading process and situations from country to country and town to town can wildly affect this number.
We found out today some employees at a business in my town took a business trip to China some time ago, and now test positive. At least one worker lives in the same town. It will be interesting to see how it spreads. The town has about 50k residents.
Since then the shit hit the fan. So I decided I would graph some numbers on this case to track infection acceleration and mortality rate using the Johns Hopkins mapping. This is the last 3 days at nearly the exact same time each day. The inadequacy of our preparedness really shines here as the number number of confirmed cases has “grown” by 223% in FORTY-EIGHT HOURS. Increases in testing are exposing how blindly we were operating and are still operating. Do you believe for a second that we had enough test? If you do please explain how the case number jumped. Your president lied to your face about a life or death situation that is in your community today.
US
Deaths Infections
97 5,894
118 7,769
176 13,159
I’m also tracking the global rate. Weeks ago I was calculating the mortality rate by using deaths/total cases and the news seemed to be doing the same but I decided that is the incorrect way to do it. Some of the infected have yet to die so that isn’t valid data. If you calculate it with deaths / (recovered+deaths) you should get the right number barring some secondary condition that continues to kill. This is a scary number which has risen from 8.35% to 10.38% over the last 4 days as it continues to spread throughout the world. I would love to hear input on this methodology from others, particularly if you are in the medical field. I will condeed that the denominator would be larger with better testing numbers but I don’t know how to predict that number.
Also some curious data from China. Things are going well there the last few days…. almost too well. Maybe I need to read up on it more but I thought they ended the quarantine(s) and I don’t see how their number wouldn’t start ballooning again. Maybe we’re just in the lagging phase as they did it too recently?? Are we getting fake numbers? Do they know something that they aren’t sharing with the world?
I hope everyone and their families stays healthy, and none of you are hit too hard financially.
I do too. I think all of us are going to feel some pain. I have never seen anything like this and only our grandparents who remember the depression likely can honestly say they have.
I do think this is the time for massive government intervention and I’m glad the Republicans are on board too. We can talk about reasons later. Back in 1929 the fed actually tightened the money supply facing a catastrophe.
Since then the shit hit the fan. So I decided I would graph some numbers on this case to track infection acceleration and mortality rate using the Johns Hopkins mapping. This is the last 3 days at nearly the exact same time each day. The inadequacy of our preparedness really shines here as the number number of confirmed cases has “grown” by 223% in FORTY-EIGHT HOURS. Increases in testing are exposing how blindly we were operating and are still operating. Do you believe for a second that we had enough test? If you do please explain how the case number jumped. Your president lied to your face about a life or death situation that is in your community today.
US
Deaths Infections
97 5,894
118 7,769
176 13,159
I’m also tracking the global rate. Weeks ago I was calculating the mortality rate by using deaths/total cases and the news seemed to be doing the same but I decided that is the incorrect way to do it. Some of the infected have yet to die so that isn’t valid data. If you calculate it with deaths / (recovered+deaths) you should get the right number barring some secondary condition that continues to kill. This is a scary number which has risen from 8.35% to 10.38% over the last 4 days as it continues to spread throughout the world. I would love to hear input on this methodology from others, particularly if you are in the medical field. I will condeed that the denominator would be larger with better testing numbers but I don’t know how to predict that number.
Also some curious data from China. Things are going well there the last few days…. almost too well. Maybe I need to read up on it more but I thought they ended the quarantine(s) and I don’t see how their number wouldn’t start ballooning again. Maybe we’re just in the lagging phase as they did it too recently?? Are we getting fake numbers? Do they know something that they aren’t sharing with the world?
China
Deaths Infections
3,230 81,058
3,241 81,102
3,249 81,155
Preach on brother man. It’s been a lonely battle. Glad you are here now.
My Senator, Richard Burr dumped 1.6 million in stock a couple of weeks ago meanwhile he was silent publicly.
Except for that little recording that leaked of him warning his business friends…damn those recording devices.
I hope everyone and their families stays healthy, and none of you are hit too hard financially.
I do too. I think all of us are going to feel some pain. I have never seen anything like this and only our grandparents who remember the depression likely can honestly say they have.
I do think this is the time for massive government intervention and I’m glad the Republicans are on board too. We can talk about reasons later. Back in 1929 the fed actually tightened the money supply facing a catastrophe.
A contact of mine in the health care industry has a patient that was sick and got scheduled for a COVID test this morning. They are scheduled for the test FIVE DAYS from now. It’s not 5 days for results, which would be terrible enough, but 5 days to get a test which then takes a few days for results.
I can’t tell you their exact symptoms and they may be low on the risk scale but waiting 5 days to get tested is outrageous.
“Laura Lewis, a 30-year-old graduate student at The Citadel, sought help after her temperature shot up to 101 degrees on March 5 and she had trouble breathing. She said it took her 10 days and four separate online telehealth screenings before she was approved for testing. As of Monday, she was still in quarantine and waiting for a testing appointment, she said.”
The president literally said while I was typing this that he hadn’t heard people who had symptoms weren’t getting test. We’re still flying blind folks. It’s quite alarming.
Unless you are a celebrity. They are able to get them. And criminal justice reform.
Because that is all that matters apparently to a reality TV conman.
Unfortunately, the virus was unaware it was a hoax. Maybe it should have watched more Fox News. Laura Ingram and Judge Drunky Drunk we’re trying to tell it!!!
You can’t shutdown the majority of the economy for weeks on end and not go into a depression. The measurements lag and Feb reports are worthless. We are falling off a cliff in addition to being blind. Hopefully the printing presses work cause we are going to need them.
Sure, I’ll make the point. The inclusion of that stuff on the list into the House bill is exactly the political BS that makes people sick of the legislature. Both parties do it, and this time it was the Dems. When you have a national crisis where things need to be expedited, write a clean bill. It should not be, as Mr. Clyburn said, “a tremendous opportunity to restructure things to fit our vision.” If your vision didn’t get elected, don’t try to sneak it in by cramming it into a bill like this.
Sure, I’ll make the point. The inclusion of that stuff on the list into the House bill is exactly the political BS that makes people sick of the legislature. Both parties do it, and this time it was the Dems. When you have a national crisis where things need to be expedited, write a clean bill. It should not be, as Mr. Clyburn said, “a tremendous opportunity to restructure things to fit our vision.” If your vision didn’t get elected, don’t try to sneak it in by cramming it into a bill like this.
I agree 100%. We don’t need a bunch of pork bullshit in this bill or any others. This is a big reason why government spending is so high, too many pet projects. What Clyburn said is despicable and I hope it was very out of context. If not he’s 79 and I’m hoping it’s his last rodeo one way or another. NEITHER side should treat this as a cash grab. Also, he DID get elected quite a few times so IMO that points is moot. This country isn’t run exclusively by the President and the will of Congress should never be ignored no matter which side controls the presidency.
Who says the bill is clean? I honestly haven’t looked into all the specifics but it would be foolish to think that $2 Trillion doesn’t have a lot of Red pork in it too. Even the Reds disagree with the money allocation as evidence by Nikki bailing from the Boeing board that is about to get $60B for shitting the bed as a company for 2 straight years. Just the fact that a huge amount of money is going to corporations can be considered red pork could it not?
-Publication of corporate pay statistics by race and race statistics for all corporate boards - COST OF DOING BUSINESS. CORPS CAN DENY
-A bail out on all current debt at the Postal Service - WHY SHOULD A CORP GET BAILED OUT OVER USPS?
-Required early voting - UNRELATED, TRASH IT
-Required same day voter registration - UNRELATED, TRASH IT
-Provisions on official time for union collective bargaining - IS THIS NOT RELATED TO THIS STIMULUS?
-Full offset of airline emissions by 2025 - A BARGAINING CHIP IN EXCHANGE FOR ROUGHLY $60B. THIS SHOULDN’T BE A BLANK CHECK WITH NO STRINGS ATTACHED. DO YOU BELIEVE IN BLANK CHECKS TO FOR PROFIT BUSINESSES? EVEN TRUMP SAID HE DIDN’T LIKE STOCK BUYBACKS IN A PRESS CONFERENCE LAST WEEK. A REPORTER HAD TO TELL HIM HE COULD LEGISLATE THAT AWAY….
-Publication and reporting of greenhouse gas statistics for individual flights - SEE ABOVE
-Retirement plans for community newspaper employees - SEEMS UNRELATED TO ME (AND COMPLETELY UNNECESSARY), TRASH IT
-Federal $15 minimum wage - I CAN ONLY SEE THIS AS A STRING ATTACHED TO COMPANIES WHO GET FREE MONEY, NO OTHERS
-Permanent paid leave - WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS?
Normally I like to proof read buy fuck it it’s late.
I agree 100%. We don’t need a bunch of pork bullshit in this bill or any others. This is a big reason why government spending is so high, too many pet projects. What Clyburn said is despicable and I hope it was very out of context. If not he’s 79 and I’m hoping it’s his last rodeo one way or another. NEITHER side should treat this as a cash grab. Also, he DID get elected quite a few times so IMO that points is moot. This country isn’t run exclusively by the President and the will of Congress should never be ignored no matter which side controls the presidency.
Who says the bill is clean? I honestly haven’t looked into all the specifics but it would be foolish to think that $2 Trillion doesn’t have a lot of Red pork in it too. Even the Reds disagree with the money allocation as evidence by Nikki bailing from the Boeing board that is about to get $60B for shitting the bed as a company for 2 straight years. Just the fact that a huge amount of money is going to corporations can be considered red pork could it not?
-Publication of corporate pay statistics by race and race statistics for all corporate boards - COST OF DOING BUSINESS. CORPS CAN DENY
-A bail out on all current debt at the Postal Service - WHY SHOULD A CORP GET BAILED OUT OVER USPS?
-Required early voting - UNRELATED, TRASH IT
-Required same day voter registration - UNRELATED, TRASH IT
-Provisions on official time for union collective bargaining - IS THIS NOT RELATED TO THIS STIMULUS?
-Full offset of airline emissions by 2025 - A BARGAINING CHIP IN EXCHANGE FOR ROUGHLY $60B. THIS SHOULDN’T BE A BLANK CHECK WITH NO STRINGS ATTACHED. DO YOU BELIEVE IN BLANK CHECKS TO FOR PROFIT BUSINESSES? EVEN TRUMP SAID HE DIDN’T LIKE STOCK BUYBACKS IN A PRESS CONFERENCE LAST WEEK. A REPORTER HAD TO TELL HIM HE COULD LEGISLATE THAT AWAY….
-Publication and reporting of greenhouse gas statistics for individual flights - SEE ABOVE
-Retirement plans for community newspaper employees - SEEMS UNRELATED TO ME (AND COMPLETELY UNNECESSARY), TRASH IT
-Federal $15 minimum wage - I CAN ONLY SEE THIS AS A STRING ATTACHED TO COMPANIES WHO GET FREE MONEY, NO OTHERS
-Permanent paid leave - WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS?
Normally I like to proof read buy fuck it it’s late.
It may very well have some red pork in it, and my thoughts are the same on that. It’s BS, and get it out of the bill.
I have mixed opinions on the money for corporations. I don’t like bailouts in general. This situation is a little different to me in this way - in the ‘08 crash, corporations (banks) were in trouble because of their own reckless behavior. This time, government essentially forced closure of a lot of the economy for the sake of public health so I feel a little better about helping. It also protects a lot of jobs for workers if they stay afloat. That said, I agree it shouldn’t be a cash grab either.
I agree on Boeing. I haven’t fully thought through what would be my plan, but I think companies of a certain size perhaps should get loans versus a chunk of cash given to them. I think they should have to qualify and show that their problems stem from this and also that we aren’t floating a company that was already in trouble - which would be a problem for Boeing. I’m okay with part of that qualification being standards on how they use the money - keeping employees and paying bills being the top priority.
