1. USC runs the table, beating Notre Dame hanidly, and just edging out an otherwise undefeated Oregon in the PAC-12CG
2. Texas beats Kansas St
3. Florida St and Clemson win out
4. Ohio St beats Michigan, Stanford beats ucla
5. Bama wins out
6. Same as above except Georgia beats Bama

Who goes to the title game?

Cases for and against:

FSU 1 loss in a close game, but against a bad team. Would have wins over 2 final top-10 ranked teams. champion of what is considered a weak conference, and would have played the weakest overall SOS of the contenders.

Oregon: Would have wins over 4 or 5 final ranked teams, which would be more than any of the contenders. Would not be a conference champion, and would have lost their last game of the season. PAC-12 would have by far the most impressive OOC wins, with wins over possibly 5 ranked teams, 1 possible top-10 ranked team.

Bama: Only loss is a close game vs a top-10 team. Champion of what is perceived to be the toughest conference, but would have wins over only 2 or 3 final ranked teams, though 1-2 of them would be top-10 ranked teams.

Kansas St. Champion of what is considered by the computers as the toughest conference. Would have wins over only 2 possibly 3 final ranked teams, with one of those possibly in the top-10. Would have lost their last game of the season, but would be against what is considered a “hot” team, similar to Oregon.

Georgia (in the case they beat Bama). Would have wins over only 2 ranked teams, but both are likely top-10 teams. Champion of the sec, loss is to a good team, but the loss is by 33 points.

Notre Dame. Would have lost their last game. Win over only 1 ranked opponent, but that opponent is a possible top-10 opponent.

Who goes to the bcs title game in this scenario.

If this happens, then for sure Bama is in.  If it is Georgia who wins the sec, then it is not as clear cut IMO.  I believe that Oregon should be in, in either case as well, but as we have seen since the inception of the bcs, PAC-10/12 teams routinely get screwed.  I don’t see any way that Notre Dame would get it.  FSU would have a strong case, but their computer rankings would very likely hold them back too much, but you never know.  LSU would make some noise, but would have no real case, and would be an absolute travesty if they got in.

The computers have eaten FSU alive mostly due to the 2 FCS teams they had to play. FSU has had a stretch of cancellations starting with Air Force 2011, then WVU 2012 and I think Nevada also bailed 2013.

Garrett_TD23 - 16 November 2012 08:24 PM

The computers have eaten FSU alive mostly due to the 2 FCS teams they had to play. FSU has had a stretch of cancellations starting with Air Force 2011, then WVU 2012 and I think Nevada also bailed 2013.

The ACC has performed terribly OOC.  That is the main reason the computers hate FSU.  They would get a bump though if they beat FLorida and Clemson beats South Carolina.  Probably not enough to put them in the ccg in this scenario, unless they were ranked #1 in both human polls by a wide margin, which will not happen.

I would anticipate Alabama-Kansas State there. FSU would be No. 2 in the polls, but the computer ranking probably won’t climb enough.

If anyone looked at FSU’s SoS objectionably, it’s no worse than UGA or Oregon’s as of right now. Line the teams up, compare the opponents combined team record, the only difference is that FSU has had to play 2 FCS opponents.

Garrett_TD23 - 16 November 2012 09:15 PM

If anyone looked at FSU’s SoS objectionably, it’s no worse than UGA or Oregon’s as of right now. Line the teams up, compare the opponents combined team record, the only difference is that FSU has had to play 2 FCS opponents.

Oh, no FSU’s is much worse.  Not too mention Oregon plays top-15 ranked Stanford, then top-15 ranked Oregon St, then a top-15 ranked USC all over the course of 20 days.

FSU does play top-10 ranked Florida upcoming, then a CCG vs an unranked opponent.

MattSmith - 16 November 2012 09:06 PM

I would anticipate Alabama-Kansas State there. FSU would be No. 2 in the polls, but the computer ranking probably won’t climb enough.

It would be an interesting debate between a 12-1 Oregon, and an 11-1 Kansas St.  I think by that time Oregon’s computer ranking will have surpassed Kansas St, mainly due to the 2nd game with USC.  Oregon would be able to say that they have beaten everyone on their schedule.  Things like the manner of loss would certainly come into play, injuries, etc….

An important factor to consider is what would a USC win over Notre Dame do to the PAC-12’s overall computer ranking.  And if wins over ucla, Notre Dame, and Oregon would be enough to put a 3 loss USC team into the top-10 of most computer rankings, as most systems give a bonus for playing top-10 teams.

Bedlam would be big as well, as an Oklahoma St win over Oklahoma would make it so Kansas St would have no top-10 teams on their schedule.

Things can work out where Oregon will have played 6 ranked teams (ranked in both the bcs poll, and the top-25 of the computers)

I’m rooting for some chaos.

I’ve already ran the numbers. Ranked teams are not the only games factored into SoS.

I don’t even worry about all that, all I want is to see UF go down, they have been talking about the UNCS game for months now, beat them and win the ACC and a bowl game.

The bottom line is the NCSU game can back fire on you if you can’t beat a team that lost to NCSU.

Garrett_TD23 - 16 November 2012 10:42 PM

I’ve already ran the numbers. Ranked teams are not the only games factored into SoS.

Agree 100%.  Still Oregon has and will play a much stronger SOS than Florida St.

This scenario didn’t last long.

93N99 - 17 November 2012 08:20 PM

This scenario didn’t last long.

we are not far off.  Half the equation was Oregon and KSU losing, the other half is FSU over Florida St, and USC over Notre Dame.  This is very possible this upcoming week.