Me and Sem are here to drive the bus again.  Twitter machines are going crazy.  Hang on for the ride!!

No! Damn it! No!! This is only suppose to happen in the dog days of summer when we’re grasping for anything to push us through the off season.

This guy is making a bit much of cincy and louisville but interesting anyway.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=16&f=2947&t=10561924

Obviously, the Big East has been sliced and gutted. But the predictable result is that either the ACC or the Big XII will be the next sacrifice to ESPN and the bundled-cable-channel profit God. It’s one or the other.

You’re looking at a gargantuan economic war, and it has NOTHING to do with geography, academics, historic rivalries or even viable sports programs (see: Maryland to the Big). It has to do with television package subscribers, whether they are actually watching the games or not—all that matters is that they are monthly subscribers paying monthly bills.

Make no mistake about it: ESPN will do everything in their power to reduce its cost-to-profit equation. Five power conferences are NOT an option. If they have their long-term way, four power conferences will be optimal. And three of those spots are already spoken for in the SEC, the Big and the Pac. So every program in the Big XII and the ACC needs to realize that now that they’ve slaughtered the Big East, they’ll be coming for the next smallest chicken in the barnyard.

That means you’re locked in a standoff, and it’s probably a first-best-move-wins scenario. The other three are just standing back and waiting to see where the final chips fall before they devour the loser.

You have to increase your subscription footprint to remain in a viable position. The service academies will NOT provide that. Nor will moves into territories where you already have subscribers (even if they’re just your hater rivals tuning in to watch you lose), or forays into outlying standouts.

Louisville and Cincinnati are an established bloc, with a built-in rivalry in a regional television market neither conference has tapped. While neither by itself presents a top 10 television market, the aggregate is pretty formidable in the Ohio River valley, bringing several million I-75 viewers into any viewership fold. Cincinnati’s facilities suck, but Louisville’s are world class. Both are capable of fielding top-20 teams in both revenue sports every single year. Better yet, both have ongoing rivalries with SEC teams that they can actually beat.

While these may be two small pieces of the large pie, together they represent the straw that will break one camel’s back or the other.

They also present reasonable travel partners for Notre Dame (which will not go all-in until the Mayans are proved right) and West Virginia (which now sits on a very tenuous, irate island). Geographic location also makes them feasible members in all but the PAC. The addition of both to the ACC or the Big XII leaves the opponent looking at service academies and second-tier programs in the race to 16 and survival in the coming super-conference era.

Both conferences have to worry about treason. FSU and Clemson are not happy with the dilution of football in the ACC, and Texas and OU can smell the happy-grass on the PAC side if they’re allowed to keep their television revenues.

It’s this simple:

UL + UC + UConn/USF—> ACC = FB+2(BB+2) ~ Tex + OU—> Pac-12 = Big XII is dead.

or

UL + UC + Boise/BYU—> Big XII = FB+3.5(BB+2) ~ FSU + Clem—> Big XII / SEC = ACC is dead.

The way I see it, all other cards now on the table, the Ohio River market subscriptions are the last chips to fall. UofL and UC may be one dollar chips on the poker table, but they may also be the chips that determine who’s all in and who is bust.

If you’re looking out for your own program, you need to decide if you want to stand pat in your own conference, or risk the turmoil and bottom-suck of moving to another.

Or you could just go get UConn. ESPN offices in Bristol Connecticut believe that’s in your best interest.

Imagine this scenario:

The Wake Forest president get’s a call for an emergency ACC meeting. When he arrives at the ACC HQ, the other presidents are already there and the room falls into an awkward silence as soon as he walks into the meeting room.

John Swofford (el Commissioner) finally breaks the silence “heyyy, so what’s going on?” A puzzled look falls on WF prez face. Swofford get’s to the point “So me and the rest of the fellas were talking and we’ve come to a unanimous decision that the Wake Forest era as a football member in the ACC needs to come to a close.”

In the background you can hear the Duke prez getting emotional. The FSU prez is trying his best to keep from smiling. The NCSU prez is recording the whole thing on his phone and going to post it on youtube later on.

“But why?” WF ask. “We’ve ran the numbers ourselves and had the dean of the engineering department at GT check behind us, so we know our math is right, it’s just that you don’t add much to the conference…...”

“But we have good attendance in basketball” interrupts the WF prez. At this point the FSU prez can barely contain his laughter.

Swofford: “It’s football that pays the bills now a days…..I’m sorry” Then John Swofford sends WF out the door with a gift basket, the door hits his butt on the way out.

Seriously though, get rid of Wake Forest as a football member. Give them the same deal as Notre Dame as an Indy and 5 ACC games. Schools with small fan bases, little attendance numbers and add nothing to the tv markets need to be cut off before they bleed the ACC dry.

A 12 team ACC football conference without Wake and Maryland will cut out the dead weight, leaving more intriguing games. Hell, I may even warm up to the idea of a 9 game conference schedule.

Couldn’t we at least wait until the end of the season to deal with this? In 3 days, Clemson and FSU plays one of its biggest game and I have to tell you that stories like this are distracting and if we come out flat and play sloppy, I will blame in part stuff like this…...

Clemson and FSU will be fine…We are both a strong national brand that TV likes…Our Colors, fan base, stadium and explosive offense is all things that will always protect us. If the ACC collapses, we will be fine.

What I don’t want to see is a knee-jerk reaction to something that may not exist. Right now all we have lost is a bad program that cannot manage its money and contributes little to nothing to the ACC brand. The addition of a place like Louisville would immediately improve the ACC and I would be fine with that.

We know the Big 12 would take us….that is obvious. They only have 10 teams and plenty of room to grow. The SEC is still a possibility which if we jumped shipped should be our first place to relocate if needed and would hope the powers that be would be working in that direction.

But let’s just focus on South Carolina and Florida and stop this drama for at least the rest of the week!

Seminole - 21 November 2012 02:25 AM

This guy is making a bit much of cincy and louisville but interesting anyway.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=16&f=2947&t=10561924

Obviously, the Big East has been sliced and gutted. But the predictable result is that either the ACC or the Big XII will be the next sacrifice to ESPN and the bundled-cable-channel profit God. It’s one or the other.

You’re looking at a gargantuan economic war, and it has NOTHING to do with geography, academics, historic rivalries or even viable sports programs (see: Maryland to the Big). It has to do with television package subscribers, whether they are actually watching the games or not—all that matters is that they are monthly subscribers paying monthly bills.

Make no mistake about it: ESPN will do everything in their power to reduce its cost-to-profit equation. Five power conferences are NOT an option. If they have their long-term way, four power conferences will be optimal. And three of those spots are already spoken for in the SEC, the Big and the Pac. So every program in the Big XII and the ACC needs to realize that now that they’ve slaughtered the Big East, they’ll be coming for the next smallest chicken in the barnyard.

That means you’re locked in a standoff, and it’s probably a first-best-move-wins scenario. The other three are just standing back and waiting to see where the final chips fall before they devour the loser.

You have to increase your subscription footprint to remain in a viable position. The service academies will NOT provide that. Nor will moves into territories where you already have subscribers (even if they’re just your hater rivals tuning in to watch you lose), or forays into outlying standouts.

Louisville and Cincinnati are an established bloc, with a built-in rivalry in a regional television market neither conference has tapped. While neither by itself presents a top 10 television market, the aggregate is pretty formidable in the Ohio River valley, bringing several million I-75 viewers into any viewership fold. Cincinnati’s facilities suck, but Louisville’s are world class. Both are capable of fielding top-20 teams in both revenue sports every single year. Better yet, both have ongoing rivalries with SEC teams that they can actually beat.

While these may be two small pieces of the large pie, together they represent the straw that will break one camel’s back or the other.

They also present reasonable travel partners for Notre Dame (which will not go all-in until the Mayans are proved right) and West Virginia (which now sits on a very tenuous, irate island). Geographic location also makes them feasible members in all but the PAC. The addition of both to the ACC or the Big XII leaves the opponent looking at service academies and second-tier programs in the race to 16 and survival in the coming super-conference era.

Both conferences have to worry about treason. FSU and Clemson are not happy with the dilution of football in the ACC, and Texas and OU can smell the happy-grass on the PAC side if they’re allowed to keep their television revenues.

It’s this simple:

UL + UC + UConn/USF—> ACC = FB+2(BB+2) ~ Tex + OU—> Pac-12 = Big XII is dead.

or

UL + UC + Boise/BYU—> Big XII = FB+3.5(BB+2) ~ FSU + Clem—> Big XII / SEC = ACC is dead.

The way I see it, all other cards now on the table, the Ohio River market subscriptions are the last chips to fall. UofL and UC may be one dollar chips on the poker table, but they may also be the chips that determine who’s all in and who is bust.

If you’re looking out for your own program, you need to decide if you want to stand pat in your own conference, or risk the turmoil and bottom-suck of moving to another.

Or you could just go get UConn. ESPN offices in Bristol Connecticut believe that’s in your best interest.

Seminole did you post this to support your argument?

I am all for Louisville but this post contradicts itself. It claims ESPN is the kingmaker. Well Newsflash: ESPN owns the ACC rights!!! Fox has the Big 12. ACC wins.

I dont agree with that necessarily nor do I think Cincy holds the key to anything. At All. Ever. And in no way would I think they would get an ACC offer.

I still contend UConn will be offered ACC membership before Christmas. I would rather contract and just have fewer mouths to feed but since bigger seems to be the only way to survive in this stupid arms race, maybe the ACC should take both and find another school to go to 16.

I dont know.

Garrett_TD23 - 21 November 2012 08:01 AM

Imagine this scenario:

The Wake Forest president get’s a call for an emergency ACC meeting. When he arrives at the ACC HQ, the other presidents are already there and the room falls into an awkward silence as soon as he walks into the meeting room.

John Swofford (el Commissioner) finally breaks the silence “heyyy, so what’s going on?” A puzzled look falls on WF prez face. Swofford get’s to the point “So me and the rest of the fellas were talking and we’ve come to a unanimous decision that the Wake Forest era as a football member in the ACC needs to come to a close.”

In the background you can hear the Duke prez getting emotional. The FSU prez is trying his best to keep from smiling. The NCSU prez is recording the whole thing on his phone and going to post it on youtube later on.

“But why?” WF ask. “We’ve ran the numbers ourselves and had the dean of the engineering department at GT check behind us, so we know our math is right, it’s just that you don’t add much to the conference…...”

“But we have good attendance in basketball” interrupts the WF prez. At this point the FSU prez can barely contain his laughter.

Swofford: “It’s football that pays the bills now a days…..I’m sorry” Then John Swofford sends WF out the door with a gift basket, the door hits his butt on the way out.

Seriously though, get rid of Wake Forest as a football member. Give them the same deal as Notre Dame as an Indy and 5 ACC games. Schools with small fan bases, little attendance numbers and add nothing to the tv markets need to be cut off before they bleed the ACC dry.

A 12 team ACC football conference without Wake and Maryland will cut out the dead weight, leaving more intriguing games. Hell, I may even warm up to the idea of a 9 game conference schedule.

No founding member is going to get kicked out. The only way Wake Forest is not a part of the pie is if the ACC disbands. That will not happen. There may be different members but the ACC isn’t going anywhere. 3.6 billion dollars guarantees it no matter who is in it.

Clemtgrs - 20 November 2012 11:19 PM

Me and Sem are here to drive the bus again.  Twitter machines are going crazy.  Hang on for the ride!!

Yall seem giddy about this. I just don’t get it.

Lets say you get your wish and Clemson and FSU go to the big 12. You are gonna be happy if schools like NCSU and VT are playing in the SEC and Carolina and UVA are in the Big 10? You claim to be superior programs to all four, yet all four would be making significantly more money than you, be significantly more advantaged and would be taking recruits from you since those would be the two power conferences. The Big 12 would now be the wipping boy as it is caught in the middle. Meanwhile you are traveling 1500 miles to play Kansas while NCSU is in Athens? VT is playing Auburn and Carolina is playing Michigan? Stupid.

I swear you guys would cut off your nose to spite your face.

(The Pac 12 gets a pass in all this because they are geographically isolated and nobody cares anyhow. They get the benefits of East coast bias by having no competition for western markets.)

after this year, NCSU and VT to the SEC could be good for CFB in general, makes the SEC a little less elite, and the Big12 a little more Elite, 2 more balanced conferences, better football games, and good OOC SEC/Big12 rivalries that generate a lot of interest

Clemson is coming around.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=46&f=3167&t=10556824&p=1

i especially liked his proposed north/south conference realignment plan

Seminole - 21 November 2012 03:57 PM

Clemson is coming around.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=46&f=3167&t=10556824&p=1

I’m sure the posters on that site are President Barker, New AD Radakovich, BOD Tim Wilkins, and other major players who have a real say in what happens.

Virginia Tech athletic director acknowledges talks with the SEC three days ago.

http://outkickthecoverage.com/virginia-tech-athletic-director-acknowledges-potential-interest-in-sec.php

You just can’t keep up can you tickle?

In regards to Wake Forest, they are neck and neck with BC as the least valuable member. The biggest difference with BC is that the ACC seems committed to expanding in the northeast market, while the southern North Carolina market is already saturated.

That is my thoughts on the matter whether it will happen or not. If the ACC does not make more money for it’s members, it’s going to get increasingly harder to keep turning away phone calls from the B1G, SEC and Big12. You can say “no” a 1000 times, but you only need to say “yes” once.

Perhaps with the addition of Notre Dame as a part time member and the dividing up of Maryland’s exit fee get’s everybody in conference an extra $4-5 million, perhaps that will keep the ACC together until the 5 year look in where hopefully the ACC does not get low balled again.

I just hope whatever happens, that Tech is able to be part of a division where we play mostly Southern teams like FSU and Clemson.  The Big 10 talk scares me now that they’re already to 14 cause if we went, we’re gonna be isolated.  Hopefully if something happens, it’s a group of Southern teams joining the Big 12, forming an Eastern division.  We’d barely ever play the Western teams, kinda like how it is now if us and FSU.  If nothing huge changes, hopefully we can at least get the ACC to realign the divisions.

Seminole - 21 November 2012 05:21 PM

Virginia Tech athletic director acknowledges talks with the SEC three days ago.

http://outkickthecoverage.com/virginia-tech-athletic-director-acknowledges-potential-interest-in-sec.php

You just can’t keep up can you tickle?

“I really haven’t thought about it because the discussion has just come about three or four days ago. I’d like to defer my comments for right now, but there may potentially be some interest.”  -  this is the VT AD’s comment that was misinterpreted

After OKTC published this piece, Weaver clarified his remarks to David Teel, saying, “I just can’t believe people are misrepresenting what I said.”

“There’s nothing happening in regard to Virginia Tech going anywhere. I don’t know how to say it any clearer than that.”

Wow, very revealing breaking news there, Sem.  And exactly what does this non-story have to do with “Clemson coming around”?  Then explain how a bunch of random Clemson posters on a message board somehow capture the sentiments of the men in charge of making these decisions.  Try and stay focused.  I know old folks get confused sometimes.  Maybe that’s it.