I don’t believe it’s at all unlikely, foregoing the adverb “very.” There is still enough talent on that football team to win five of their games. Since injuries and gameday performance cannot be calculated, we are left with two calculable variables: Established and potential talent and recent history (head-to-head.) Apologies to any fans of the following schools, I’m not attempting to demean these programs, it’s simply the way I feel concerning the talent and experience of all these teams when compared with another.
Tennessee has more talent and depth across the board than Tenn-Martin, UAB, Memphis, Vandy and Kentucky. Yes, we all know talent alone doesn’t win games, it would be ignorant to assume otherwise. Missed assignments, penalties, turnovers, injuries and low and lazy motivation and not being able to account for opposing tactics can all overcome the advantage of talent greatly. However, what I AM saying is these are games Tennessee CAN (not should or will) win with talent alone.
There are your five games. Of course, that’s “realistic” because the odds and conditions favor it being true.
Now let’s look at the remainder of their schedule: Oregon (at home), Florida, at LSU, at Georgia, Alabama, at South Carolina, at Mississippi.
If I were going to view that with the same format, I think Florida and Alabama are probable losses.
The rest are winnable games. There’s no way to predict now how they’ll fare when gameday comes, let alone two minutes before kickoff, but I know they won’t be completely outclassed in those games.
The Vols haven’t had much luck with the Pac-10 lately, but Oregon comes into Knoxville a very long trip and tough road test early on for a team that has a great deal of talent, but displayed a great deal of vulnerability and confusion in their bowl loss.
LSU is still a very talented and gifted football team, but they don’t have the foundation they’ve had in the past. The offense isn’t going to find itself early and even if it does, it won’t have enough bite to force Tennessee into no-mistake mode. LSU still has a good rush front, and some steady players in the secondary, but they are nowhere near the dominant presence they were 3 seasons ago.
Georgia was beaten handily by UT, that won’t happen again..not with Richt and co. facing pressure from the fans and not in Athens. Still, Georgia is reconfiguring their entire defense and I don’t see how most of their d-linemen properly (save Kwame Geahters at NT, maybe) fit in a three man front. They think DeAngelo Tyson will work out, I don’t...Just a matter of opinion and outside study. That’s their job to figure it out and I’ll bet you’ll see a lot of that going on three or four weeks into the season. Georgia’s offense will be good, but the line concerns me and I’d really like to see Caleb King become more active for them to be effective. This is still a winnable game.
Ole Miss is going to have a year which will determine the direction of the program under Nutt, and his future with the program entirely. They’ve lost their center and the entire right side of their line, particularly John Jerry, their best three offensive players, including their quarterback who was hit and miss all season (he definitely hit in the Tennessee game). They lost a good deal of experience in six defensive starters, as well. The game is late in the season, so if Mississippi hasn’t made the transition by this point, they’re already in trouble. Regardless, I don’t think they’ll be anywhere on the level with where they’ve been the past two seasons.
By the time Halloween rolls around, we usually see what the future holds for Carolina. They’ve started strong, but finished weak. If they aren’t around by this time of the season, Tenessee has a shot at winning in Columbia. I can’t in good faith buy into an unproven running back, an inconsistent quarter back, a dated offensive system, a new line coach with a line still looking for an identity and a defense that turns to replace the core of its defense as much as others are. This is further bolstered by the fact they have underachieved with a great amount of talent before. Despite that, Carolina does have a solid football team and is probably the more well-rounded squad between them and Tennessee. Still there are too many question marks for me to think Carolina can win this one without answering those questions.
All in all, UT replaces their starting qb, need to quickly develop their WRs to complement Jones, Bryce Brown has to become the workhorse, and the defense will have to find itself in the returning starters and try to rely on the recruiting success they’ve enjoyed the past two years bringing along their young talent.
Since everyone is 0-0, they stand to go undefeated. THAT is unrealistic. I don’t think they will beat Bama, Florida or LSU. That gives them three losses.
That leaves Oregon, Mississippi, Georgia and South Carolina. Those are all teams that given the circumstances right now, I think Tennessee can beat. I think they can and will beat Mississippi and South Carolina. That gives them 7 wins. That’s not even coming from a Vols fan.
That’s why I stated 7 wins is a realistic expectation for this team. A win and a loss isn’t measured in the point differential of a game, either. I would tell the Vols fans now 5 is also a realistic possibility, but I think that’s the bottom line for this team.
(That’s not to say the teams I mentioned above will lose, and Kentucky will give them a run for it, I believe. I have different reasons for why other teams could beat Tennessee, I was only stating the potential for this team.)
