By Dave Holcomb
SouthernPigskin.com

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The revolution at tight end could help Pitts become the first tight end drafted at No. 4.

There are no csure thingsd in the NFL draft. Trevor Lawrence is about as close as a player can get to that claim, and as a quarterback, his success will at least somewhat be tied to Jacksonvilles ability to build a winning culture it hasnt consistently possessed since the Tom Coughlin era.

But as far as csure things” go, one could argue there are two of them in the 2021 NFL Draft 4 Lawrence and Florida tight end Kyle Pitts. A generational talent, Pitts is consistently ranked as one of the best three players in the 2021 draft class. Good Morning, Football even discussed whether Lawrence or Pitts would eventually be called the biggest star of this draft.Pitt

Considering Lawrence is the best NFL quarterback prospect since perhaps Andrew Luck, that says a ton about Pitts.

But history is counting against Pitts. In the last 14 years, only two tight ends have been drafted in the top ten, and the Detroit Lions selected both. The last time a tight end went as high as sixth was Vernon Davis in 2006.

No tight end has been drafted inside the top four in the history of the draft, and only five have gone in the top six. With quarterbacks figuring to go 1-2-3 for the first time since 1999, it will be up to the Atlanta Falcons taking Pitts to make history.

The tumble could start there for Pitts and given team needs and draft history, its not inconceivable to see the former Florida tight end fall out of the top ten. But even if he doesnt make history, the team that lands Pitts is going to get the leagues next star tight end.

Its interesting to think about how scouts would view Pitts if he were coming into the league in 2001 or even 2011. At 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds, he has the body of a tight end, but his speed and grace make him perhaps the most unique tight end prospect ever. While NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein named Darren Waller as Pitts NFL comparison, he also wrote Pitts has similar characteristics to Calvin Johnson.

Thats a comparison that will raise any football fans eyebrows.

He has the physical traits to be the next Rob Gronkowski. The Buccaneers tight end is one of the greatest all-around tight end in history, but another elite tight end, Shannon Sharpe, might be a better comparison because Pitts isnt a good blocker just as Sharpe wasnt.

Again, Pitts has the body to block like Gronkowski, but Zierlein says he possesses cbelow average instincts as a lead blocker in spaced and cstruggles to sustain at the point of attack.d

Twenty years ago, that would have been a problem. But not in todays pass-first NFL. Teams no longer shy away from elite pass-catching tight ends because they can so often create mismatches against linebackers and safeties. If they can block too, great, but if not, teams can find another tight end who can block.

The revolution at tight end could help Pitts become the first tight end drafted at No. 4. The Falcons have new management, so its hard to predict exactly where the franchise will go with their highest selection since 2008 when they drafted Matt Ryan, but historically, Atlanta has loved taking passing-game weapons in the first round.

If Pitts slips past No. 4, though, he could keep falling. Cincinnati, Miami, Detroit, Carolina and Denver all have bigger needs than tight end and/or recently picked a highly-touted tight end within the last couple years.

The next teams selecting are the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles and Chargers. NFL analyst Charles Davis argued Pitts wont slip past Dallas while fellow analyst Bucky Brooks says No. 13 to the Chargers are the absolute latest he could go.

The wild card is whether a team seeing Pitts fall out of the top six or eight then trades up to pick him. Maybe the Falcons trade out of four but still get Pitts a few selections later?

That will remain uncertain until draft day. But what is clear is the fact Pitts has all the tools to be an All Pro. In just eight games, he posted 43 receptions for 770 yards, averaging 17.9 yards per reception. He also scored 12 touchdowns on his way to becoming the first tight end nominated for the Fred Biletnikoff award (given annually to the best college wide receiver). That made him a shoe-in for the John Mackey award (given annually to the best college tight end).

Pitts will aim to make more history for his position on the final Thursday of April. Whether he does or not, hes going to make one franchise very happy.