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Week Twelve SEC Primer

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By Matt Smith
SouthernPigskin.com
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As we come down from our LSU-Alabama high, the SEC offers up a plate of six conference games this week. Arkansas and Tennessee are idle, but all 12 other teams are playing other SEC teams.

As we come down from our LSU-Alabama high, the SEC offers up a plate of six conference games this week. Arkansas and Tennessee are idle, but all 12 other teams are playing other SEC teams.

The schedule is highlighted by the 124th renewal of the Deep Souths Oldest Rivalry between Georgia and Auburn. The 8Dawgs have won seven of the past nine meetings, and theyll need to make it eight out of 10 to keep national title hopes alive. Georgia can also clinch the SEC East title with a win or a Florida loss.

LSU and Alabama will both be in the Magnolia State on Saturday, as Alabama visits Mississippi State for a morning kickoff, and LSU heads to Oxford to face Ole Miss under the lights.

Week 12 doesnt offer a deep schedule, as have most weeks in an SEC season with a huge gap between the haves and have-nots, but we get one of the conferences best rivalries in a game with a ton of impact. Lets preview the third Saturday in November in the SEC.

5 Things I Want to Know on Sunday Morning

1. Who wins the SECs best battle in the trenches of the season?

In an era where even LSU and Alabama are putting up 40 points on each other, the highly physical unit-on-unit battles at line of scrimmage have diminished. However, well get the best one all year on Saturday with Georgias offensive line meeting Auburns defensive line. Both units are loaded with future Sunday players. The Bulldogs 5.6 yards per carry leads the SEC, while Auburn has a top-10 pick in Derrick Brown in the middle of its defensive line anchoring a unit that held that mighty LSU offense to just 23 points.

2. Will Saturday be a chutes or ladders game for Bo Nix?

The Auburn true freshman quarterback has had a season in line with expectations. Hes had plenty of good moments, but has struggled in some big games, completing just 41 and 43 percent of his passes against Florida and LSU respectively. He sandwiched those two games with a crisp performance against Arkansas (as most quarterbacks are wont to do against the Razorbacks), and threw for a career high 340 yards last time out against a respectable Ole Miss defense. Georgias defense leads the SEC in most major categories, but passing defense is not one (the 8Dawgs are No. 2). Auburn wont be able to run consistently, so any hope for sustained drives requires Nix to deliver the best performance of his young career.

3. Can Jake Fromm elevate again in a big game?

Despite some struggles in his junior season, Fromm has risen to the occasion in big spots almost every time in his three-year career quarterbacking Georgia. He struggled against South Carolina and Missouri, but was excellent in close wins over Notre Dame and Florida, which have propelled Georgia back to No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings despite the hideous loss to the Gamecocks last month. This game is in Auburn, however, and Fromm completed just 13 of 29 passes in Georgias 40-17 loss there in 2017. Last year at LSU, Fromm also missed on more than 50 percent of his pass attempts and had two interceptions. This is only Georgias third road game of the season, and one was a virtual home game at Vanderbilt.

4. Will there be any Magnolia State hangovers for LSU or Alabama?

LSU heads north to Oxford to meet quasi-rival Ole Miss in its final road game of the season, while Alabama makes the short trip west to Starkville for its annual against Mississippi State. Both the 4-6 Rebels and 4-5 Bulldogs are having seasons to forget, but a shocking upset on Saturday would quickly change that tune. Its hard to see the Tigers blinking right now, and if any school knows how to handle a hangover, its one from Louisiana. Alabama is probably the more vulnerable of the two this weekend with Tua Tagovailoa still not healthy. The last time Alabama lost consecutive games in the regular season? 2007, when the Crimson Tide lost at home to LSU and on the road at Mississippi State in back-to-back weeks.

5. What does Missouri have left in the tank?

No. 11 Florida opened as just a 5-point favorite at 5-4 Missouri, meaning Las Vegas, at least, doesnt think the Tigers are quite dead yet. Kelly Bryant is expected to return after missing last weeks loss at Georgia with a hamstring injury, hoping to boost a Missouri offense that scored just 21 points on an 0-3 road trip over the past month. Florida has struggled on the road this year against lesser competition, needing late comebacks to defeat both Kentucky and South Carolina. The Tigers can save their season with an upset of the Gators. Can they stop the bleeding?

Trivia Time (answers below):

1. In what city was all but one Auburn-Georgia game played from 1916 through 1958?
2. Alabama and Mississippi State (84 miles) are the closest two SEC teams to each other. What is the second-closest pairing of SEC schools?
3. LSU did not win the national title in 1959, the year of Billy Cannons famous punt return to defeat Ole Miss. Who did win the national title that year?

Previews and Predictions

(11) Florida (-7) at Missouri, Noon ET (CBS)
Announcers: Carter Blackburn, Rick Neuheisel and Aaron Taylor

The Tigers are 4-3 against Florida since joining the SEC 3 a better record than their 3-5 marks against both Kentucky and South Carolina. Theyll need a healthy Kelly Bryant to stay above .500 against the Gators and for the 2019 season, as veteran quarterbacks have been the ones to crack this Florida defense this season. Defensively, Missouri has struggled to find a pass rush this season. Despite Missouris impressive pass defense numbers, the Gators receiving corps against the Missouri secondary should be the biggest mismatch on the field on Saturday. The Tigers have feasted on offenses who cant throw the ball, but Florida is more than capable of stretching the field. Im taking the bait on a line that seems way too small.

Prediction: Florida 31, Missouri 17

(5) Alabama (-17.5) at Mississippi State, Noon ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Steve Levy, Brian Griese and Todd McShay

This Alabama defense hasnt been great against the run this season, and the Crimson Tide will face the SECs leading rusher on Saturday in Mississippi States Kylin Hill. The Bulldogs offense was playing well heading into their idle week, although one of those games came against hapless Arkansas. Expect to see as many as four quarterbacks, with Tua Tagovailoa potentially limited or even out, and Mississippi State likely to play both Garrett Shrader and Tommy Stevens. Alabama hasnt lost to the Bulldogs since 2007, and the Crimson Tide could use some style points this week.

Prediction: Alabama 45, Mississippi State 17

Kentucky (-10) at Vanderbilt, 3:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Taylor Zarzour and Matt Stinchcomb

Yuck. Kentucky has made the most of a terrible quarterback situation, needing only a win over Vanderbilt on Saturday to all but ensure a fourth straight bowl appearance. The Commodores have made the worst of their own terrible quarterback situation, scoring more than 10 points just once in their past four games. Riley Neal returns to the lineup for Vanderbilt this week after missing last weeks 56-0 loss at Florida, while Kentucky appears to be sticking with its throwback offense led by converted wide receiver Lynn Bowden. The Wildcats havent quit. Vanderbilt may be thinking about it.

Prediction: Kentucky 23, Vanderbilt 14

(4) Georgia (-3) at (12) Auburn, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Announcers: Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson

Mid-November. Rivalry game. Playoff implications. Strength on Strength. Even if the total points scored comes nowhere near to that of last weeks big game in the SEC, this one could have just as much drama. Georgias defense remains underappreciated, and I think this is the week that their prowess is realized. 20 points might be enough to win this game, as Georgia has won its two big games this season by scoring just 23 against Notre Dame and 24 against Florida. Assuming Lawrence Cager is healthy, the Georgia passing game has enough of a threat of explosiveness to allow their running game to be efficient. It will be death by 1,000 paper cuts for any slim playoff hopes Auburn has left.

Prediction: Georgia 23, Auburn 15

(1) LSU (-21.5) at Ole Miss, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Sean McDonough and Todd Blackledge

The Rebels have appeared to settle on John Rhys Plumlee as the quarterback for the remainder of the season. Already as a true freshman, Plumlee has started games at No. 1 Alabama and at Auburn, so the challenge of facing another top-ranked team shouldnt rattle him. Despite the win at Alabama a week ago, LSUs defense should be a bit salty after allowing 28 points in the second half in Tuscaloosa. The Ole Miss offense has some talent, but it hasnt had much flow from drive to drive or game to game. The Rebels have made huge progress on defense this season, but stopping Joe Burrow and Clyde Edwards-Helaire isnt in the cards.

Prediction: LSU 49, Ole Miss 20

South Carolina at Texas A&M (-11), 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, and Cole Cubelic

The Gamecocks have yet to beat the Aggies since the latter joined the SEC in 2012. Will Muschamp could really use a win in College Station, as a loss would all but ensure a 4-8 season with Clemson the final opponent. Texas A&M has been off the radar since suffering its third loss of the season more than a month ago, as the Aggies have yet to beat a team with a winning record. The 4-6 Gamecocks wont help Texas A&M change that stat, but they could provide the Aggies their stiffest test since the loss to Alabama. South Carolina winning the line of scrimmage will keep this game close for four quarters, but Texas A&M will do just enough to survive and prove again that they are the epitome of a slightly above-average team.

Prediction: Texas A&M 24, South Carolina 20

Best Bets

Last Week: 1-4, -13 Musburgers
YTD: 23-29-3, -19 Musburgers

Temple +6 vs. Tulane 3 5 Musburgers
Virginia Tech -6 at Georgia Tech 3 4 Musburgers
Iowa -3 vs. Minnesota 3 3 Musburgers
Penn State -14.5 vs. Indiana 3 2 Musburgers
UCLA +21.5 at Utah 3 1 Musburger

Trivia Answers

1. Columbus Ga.
2. Mississippi State and Ole Miss (93 miles)
3. Syracuse

Matt Smith – Matt is a 2007 graduate of Notre Dame and has spent most of his life pondering why most people in the Mid-Atlantic actually think there are more important things than college football. He has blogged for College Football News, covering both national news as well as Notre Dame and the service academies. He credits Steve Spurrier and Danny Wuerffel for his love of college football and tailgating at Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn for his love of sundresses. Matt covers the ACC as well as the national scene.


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