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OAYP: Week Eight Sun Belt Roundup

By Jim Johnson
SouthernPigskin.com
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SP Editor Jim Johnson's OAYP advanced metric ranks every team in the league, the top five players at each position, and gives its team of the week.

OAYP has now been fully updated with the week eight data.

These weekly conference roundups detail the most highly rated players in the league, the top performers of that week, and the ever-changing overall team strength, offensive, and defensive rankings.

TEAM RANKINGS

- You can click here for the full 130 FBS team rankings, which includes each team’s national offensive, defensive, and strength of schedule ranking.

- I’ll also include OAYP’s prediction for each team’s next opponent, which is currently hitting 61% against the spread this season.

1. App State 1.37

Offensive Ranking: 1
Defensive Ranking: 1

Week 9 Vegas Line: App State (-26.5) at South Alabama
OAYP Prediction: App State by 31

2. Louisiana 0.52

Offensive Ranking: 2
Defensive Ranking: 2

3. Arkansas State -0.56

Offensive Ranking: 4
Defensive Ranking: 8

Week 9 Vegas Line: Texas State at Arkansas State (-11.5)
OAYP Prediction: Arkansas State by 16

4. Troy -0.81

Offensive Ranking: 6
Defensive Ranking: 7

Week 9 Vegas Line: Troy (+1) at Georgia State
OAYP Prediction: Troy by 5

5. Georgia Southern -0.82

Offensive Ranking: 8
Defensive Ranking: 5

6. ULM -1.17

Offensive Ranking: 7
Defensive Ranking: 10

7. Coastal Carolina -1.35

Offensive Ranking: 5
Defensive Ranking: 4

8. Georgia State -1.60

Offensive Ranking: 3
Defensive Ranking: 9

Week 9 Vegas Line: Troy at Georgia State (-1)
OAYP Prediction: Troy by 5

9. Texas State -1.98

Offensive Ranking: 9
Defensive Ranking: 3

Week 9 Vegas Line: Texas State (+11.5) at Arkansas State
OAYP Prediction: Arkansas State by 16

10. South Alabama -2.65

Offensive Ranking: 10
Defensive Ranking: 6

Week 9 Vegas Line: App State at South Alabama (+26.5)
OAYP Prediction: App State by 31

POSITION RANKINGS

- Now that I’m normalizing the player scores, which removes any inequitability in scoring from one position group to the next, my rough tiers have changed correspondingly:

  • Zero is still the mean
  • Less than zero is, obviously, below average, but I don’t think any real red flags go up until <-2.0
  • 0.0-0.99 is above average, 1.0-1.99 is good, 2.0-2.99 would typically be about an all-conference caliber player in the average league, 3.0-3.99 should a first team all-conference lock (depending on the year, even an All-American or national award finalist), and >4.0 should be an All-American

QB

  1. Zac Thomas, App State 0.81
  2. Dan Ellington, Georgia State 0.31
  3. Caleb Evans, ULM 0.23
  4. Kaleb Barker, Troy 0.08
  5. Fred Payton, Coastal Carolina -0.26

RB

  1. Darrynton Evans, App State 1.92
  2. Trey Ragas, Louisiana 1.76
  3. Raymond Calais, Louisiana 1.26
  4. Tra Barnett, Georgia State 1.17
  5. CJ Marable, Coastal Carolina 0.95

WR

  1. Omar Bayless, Arkansas State 3.8
  2. Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama 1.88
  3. Khalil McClain, Troy 1.2
  4. Kawaan Baker, South Alabama 1.03
  5. Ja'Marcus Bradley, Louisiana 0.97

TE

  1. Isaiah Likely, Coastal Carolina 2.97
  2. Josh Pederson, ULM 2.15
  3. Nick Ralston, Louisiana 1.02
  4. Shadell Bell, Coastal Carolina 0.19
  5. Roger Carter, Georgia State -0.03

OT

  1. Robert Hunt, Louisiana 4.55
  2. Max Mitchell, Louisiana 2.66
  3. Hunter Atkinson, Georgia State 1.41
  4. Cooper Hodges, App State 1.28
  5. Eastwood Thomas, ULM 0.88

OG

  1. Kevin Dotson, Louisiana 4.27
  2. O'Cyrus Torrence, Louisiana 3.0
  3. Ryan Neuzil, App State 1.2
  4. Baer Hunter, App State 0.95
  5. Shamarious Gilmore, Georgia State 0.7

C

  1. Shane Vallot, Louisiana 2.45
  2. Noah Hannon, App State 1.57
  3. Malik Sumter, Georgia State 1.38
  4. Bobby Reynolds, ULM 0.88
  5. Jacob Still, Arkansas State -0.69

EDGE

  1. Akeem Davis-Gaither, App State 2.01
  2. Randy Wade, Georgia Southern 1.7
  3. William Bradley-King, Arkansas State 0.48
  4. Noel Cook, App State 0.19
  5. Donald Louis, ULM 0.05

DL

  1. Demetrius Taylor, App State 4.13
  2. Raymond Johnson, Georgia Southern 1.65
  3. Tarron Jackson, Coastal Carolina 1.53
  4. Will Choloh, Troy 1.52
  5. CJ Brewer, Coastal Carolina 1.24

LB

  1. Carlton Martial, Troy 4.6
  2. Bryan London, Texas State 1.44
  3. Jordan Fehr, App State 1.21
  4. Nikolas Daniels, Texas State 0.61
  5. Rashad Byrd, Georgia Southern 0.4

CB

  1. Jarron Morris, Texas State 2.33
  2. Will Sunderland, Troy 1.3
  3. Corey Straughter, ULM 1.21
  4. Jeremy Smith, Arkansas State 1.07
  5. Shaun Jolly, App State 0.78

S

  1. BJ Edmonds, Arkansas State 0.71
  2. Darreon Jackson, Arkansas State 0.58
  3. Remy Lazarus, Georgia State 0.3
  4. Keith Gallmon, South Alabama 0.21
  5. Alex Spillum, Coastal Carolina 0.11

TEAM OF THE WEEK

QB -- Dan Ellington, Georgia State
RB -- Raymond Calais, Louisiana
RB -- Darrynton Evans, App State
WR -- Mark Michaud, Georgia Southern
WR -- Omar Bayless, Arkansas State
WR -- Ja'Marcus Bradley, Louisiana
TE -- Aubry Payne, Georgia State
OT -- Robert Hunt, Louisiana
OT -- Austin Stidham, Troy
OG -- O'Cyrus Torrence, Louisiana
OG -- Tristan Crowder, Troy
C -- Malik Sumter, Georgia State

EDGE -- William Bradley-King, Arkansas State
EDGE -- Victor Heyward, Georgia State
DL -- Bennie Higgins, Louisiana
DL -- CJ Brewer, Coastal Carolina
LB -- Carlton Martial, Troy
LB -- Trajan Stephens-McQueen, Georgia State
LB -- Jordan Fehr, App State
CB -- Will Sunderland, Troy
CB -- Travis Reed, South Alabama
S -- Keilos Swinney, ULM
S -- Brayden Matts, Coastal Carolina
DB -- Shaun Jolly, App State

Jim Johnson - Editor of Southern Pigskin, Producer of "Three & Out", and host of "Explosive Recruiting" on the Southern Pigskin Radio Network. E-mail: jim@espncoastal.com Twitter: @JimJohnsonSP