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OAYP: Week Seven Sun Belt Roundup

By Jim Johnson
SouthernPigskin.com
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SP Editor Jim Johnson's OAYP advanced metric ranks every team in the league, the top five players at each position, and gives its team of the week.

As simultaneously hard to believe as it is sad, we’re now halfway through the 2019 regular season.

Now that we’re working on a decent sample size, most of the individual players’ OAYP scores are comprised solely of 2019 data, and the remaining few that aren’t will be soon. As for the team component, everyone still has a little 2018 in their score, but after this weekend, those will be all 2019.

These weekly conference roundups detail the most highly rated players in the league, the top performers of that week, and the ever-changing overall team strength, offensive, and defensive rankings.

TEAM RANKINGS

- Each team’s national ranking for the respective categories is in parentheses, preceded by their conference ranking.

- You can click here for the full 130 FBS team rankings.

- I’ll also include OAYP’s prediction for each team’s next opponent, which is currently hitting 64% against the spread this season.

1. App State 1.02 (29)

Offensive Ranking: 1 (11)
Defensive Ranking: 2 (61)

Week 8 Vegas Line: ULM at App State (-14.5)
OAYP Prediction: App State by 18

2. Louisiana 0.11 (58)

Offensive Ranking: 2 (38)
Defensive Ranking: 1 (52)

Week 8 Vegas Line: Louisiana (-6.5) at Arkansas State
OAYP Prediction: Louisiana by 7

3. Arkansas State -0.52 (80)

Offensive Ranking: 4 (49)
Defensive Ranking: 7 (104)

Week 8 Vegas Line: Louisiana at Arkansas State (+6.5)
OAYP Prediction: Louisiana by 7

4. Troy -0.70 (86)

Offensive Ranking: 7 (68)
Defensive Ranking: 9 (114)

Week 8 Vegas Line: South Alabama at Troy (-15)
OAYP Prediction: Troy by 17

5. Georgia Southern -0.86 (94)

Offensive Ranking: 8 (117)
Defensive Ranking: 6 (101)

Week 8 Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern (-6.5)
OAYP Prediction: Georgia Southern by 8

6. ULM -0.97 (100)

Offensive Ranking: 3 (48)
Defensive Ranking: 10 (118)

Week 8 Vegas Line: ULM (+14.5) at App State
OAYP Prediction: App State by 18

7. Coastal Carolina -1.55 (107)

Offensive Ranking: 5 (51)
Defensive Ranking: 4 (90)

Week 8 Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina (+6.5) at Georgia Southern
OAYP Prediction: Georgia Southern by 8

8. Texas State -1.95 (114)

Offensive Ranking: 9 (123)
Defensive Ranking: 3 (67)

9. Georgia State -2.08 (118)

Offensive Ranking: 6 (63)
Defensive Ranking: 8 (113)

10. South Alabama -2.59 (123)

Offensive Ranking: 10 (125)
Defensive Ranking: 5 (99)

Week 8 Vegas Line: South Alabama (+15) at Troy
OAYP Prediction: Troy by 17

POSITION RANKINGS

- Now that I’m normalizing the player scores, which removes any inequitability in scoring from one position group to the next, my rough tiers have changed correspondingly:

  • Zero is still the mean
  • Less than zero is, obviously, below average, but I don’t think any real red flags go up until <-2.0
  • 0.0-0.99 is above average, 1.0-1.99 is good, 2.0-2.99 would typically be about an all-conference caliber player in the average league, 3.0-3.99 should a first team all-conference lock (depending on the year, even an All-American or national award finalist), and >4.0 should be an All-American

QB

  1. Caleb Evans, ULM 0.92
  2. Zac Thomas, App State 0.75
  3. Kaleb Barker, Troy 0.43
  4. Dan Ellington, Georgia State -0.03
  5. Fred Payton, Coastal Carolina -0.23

RB

  1. Trey Ragas, Louisiana 2.56
  2. Darrynton Evans, App State 1.86
  3. CJ Marable, Coastal Carolina 1.31
  4. Tra Barnett, Georgia State 1.26
  5. Josh Johnson, ULM 1.04

WR

  1. Omar Bayless, Arkansas State 3.84
  2. Khalil McClain, Troy 2.04
  3. Trevis Graham, Texas State 1.79
  4. Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama 1.74
  5. Kawaan Baker, South Alabama 1.21

TE

  1. Josh Pederson, ULM 3.11
  2. Nick Ralston, Louisiana 1.59
  3. Isaiah Likely, Coastal Carolina 1.33
  4. Shadell Bell, Coastal Carolina 0.21
  5. Roger Carter, Georgia State -0.47

OT

  1. Robert Hunt, Louisiana 4.18
  2. Max Mitchell, Louisiana 2.46
  3. Hunter Atkinson, Georgia State 1.41
  4. Eastwood Thomas, ULM 1.02
  5. Cooper Hodges, App State 0.91

OG

  1. Kevin Dotson, Louisiana 4.42
  2. O'Cyrus Torrence, Louisiana 2.25
  3. Ryan Neuzil, App State 0.94
  4. Trace Ellison, ULM 0.77
  5. Shamarious Gilmore, Georgia State 0.66

C

  1. Shane Vallot, Louisiana 2.19
  2. Noah Hannon, App State 1.3
  3. Bobby Reynolds, ULM 0.99
  4. Malik Sumter, Georgia State 0.84
  5. Sam Thompson, Coastal Carolina 0.18

EDGE

  1. Akeem Davis-Gaither, App State 2.88
  2. Randy Wade, Georgia Southern 1.78
  3. Noel Cook, App State 0.38
  4. Donald Louis, ULM 0.32
  5. William Bradley-King, Arkansas State -0.2

DL

  1. Demetrius Taylor, App State 5.6
  2. Raymond Johnson, Georgia Southern 1.81
  3. Tarron Jackson, Coastal Carolina 1.64
  4. Will Choloh, Troy 1.34
  5. Ishmael Davis, Texas State 1.32

LB

  1. Carlton Martial, Troy 4.48
  2. Bryan London, Texas State 1.57
  3. Jordan Fehr, App State 0.94
  4. Rashad Byrd, Georgia Southern 0.73
  5. Nikolas Daniels, Texas State 0.72

CB

  1. Jarron Morris, Texas State 2.5
  2. Corey Straughter, ULM 2.15
  3. Mallory Claybourne, Coastal Carolina 1.13
  4. Anthony Taylor, Texas State 0.72
  5. Jeremy Smith, Arkansas State 0.67

S

  1. BJ Edmonds, Arkansas State 0.87
  2. Alex Spillum, Coastal Carolina 0.76
  3. Keith Gallmon, South Alabama 0.33
  4. Remy Lazarus, Georgia State 0.18
  5. Jashon Waddy, Texas State 0.09

TEAM OF THE WEEK

QB -- Bryce Carpenter, Coastal Carolina
RB -- Tra Barnett, Georgia State
RB -- Josh Johnson, ULM
WR -- Jaivon Heiligh, Coastal Carolina
WR -- Malik Jackson, ULM
WR -- Markis McCray, ULM
TE -- Tyler Lamm, ULM
OT -- Hunter Atkinson, Georgia State
OT -- Eastwood Thomas, ULM
OG -- Trace Ellison, ULM
OG -- Brandon Jones, ULM
C -- Bobby Reynolds, ULM

EDGE -- Kerry Starks, ULM
EDGE -- Akeem Davis-Gaither, App State
DL -- CJ Brewer, Coastal Carolina
DL -- Nico Ezidore, Texas State
LB -- Teddy Gallagher, Coastal Carolina
LB -- Jordan Fehr, App State
LB -- Ed Curney, Georgia State
CB -- Corey Straughter, ULM
CB -- Jordan Morris, Coastal Carolina
S -- Alex Spillum, Coastal Carolina
S -- Austin Hawley, ULM
DB -- Remy Lazarus, Georgia State

Jim Johnson - Editor of Southern Pigskin, Producer of "Three & Out", and host of "Explosive Recruiting" on the Southern Pigskin Radio Network. E-mail: jim@espncoastal.com Twitter: @JimJohnsonSP