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Week Six SEC Primer

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By Southern Pigskin Staff
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Matt Smith previews week six in the SEC.

Somehow, most of college football will reach the halfway point of their seasons by the time head meets pillow on Saturday night. This sport always flies by, but it still requires a bit of a pause when you realize the regular season reaches its downside.

Before we get there, however, we have a seven-game slate of SEC games that includes two Top 25 matchups, neither of which was the one game this week that we assumed was a lock to be a Top 25 matchup when the season commenced not that long ago.

We have a historical rivalry game. We have hot seat talk. We have No. 1 going back on the road. Lets traverse the Southeast and preview a fun Week 6 in the SEC.

This is a Big Week for:
Coach: Ed Orgeron, LSU
Orgeron isnt going to make it with a loss at Kentucky on Saturday night. He needs to get to 8-4 at minimum, and with a fourth loss all but guaranteed to Alabama, LSU would then need to sweep its games with Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Texas A&M to get to eight wins. Thats just not happening, and an in-season firing isnt out of the question. The Tigers can and should win this game. Thats the case pretty much every week that their opponent isnt wearing crimson, but it hasnt happened six times now since the start of 2020. 15-0 in 2019 feels like a decade ago.

Player: Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn
APB for Mr. Bigsby. Anyone? The preseason All-SEC running back is now the backup to freshman Jarquez Hunter, who carried the load for the Tigers in their comeback win at LSU last Saturday night. Now comes Georgia, and a physical beating. Bigsby will see plenty of work against the mighty Bulldogs, and its a huge opportunity to regain the 2020 form that sent his stock soaring.

Unit: Kentucky Defensive Backs
LSU cant run the football, and theres no reason to think that will get turned around in Lexington against a strong Wildcats defense. The Tigers will need to win through the air again, which means All-American candidate Kayshon Boutte will be a busy man. The Kentucky secondary has just one interception this season, so this isnt a playmaking group. For the Wildcats to get to 6-0, this group made need to make a splash play or two.

Trivia Time
1. Who was the last unranked team to defeat Alabama?
2. When was the last time Auburn beat both Georgia and LSU in the same season?
3. What future NFL receiver caught the game-winning touchdown pass in Kentuckys 2007 upset of No. 1 LSU?

Game Predictions
(13) Arkansas (4-1, 1-1 SEC) at (17) Ole Miss (3-1, 0-1 SEC), Noon ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Joe Tessitore and Greg McElroy
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Arkansas 33, Ole Miss 21
Current Streak: Arkansas – 1
Current Streak in Oxford: Ole Miss – 1
Line: Ole Miss -6.5
Over/Under: 66
A pair of wounded ducks kick off the SEC Saturday in Oxford, with the winner positioning themselves nicely to make a Sugar Bowl run at 5-1 at the turn. Arkansas has the advantage in the trenches and will look to slow this game down, as a shootout likely benefits Ole Miss. The Razorbacks were sloppy last week at Georgia and after failing to get out of some poor field position, the Bulldogs used short fields and a splash play on special teams to bury the Hogs before Uga had even started to pant. Ole Miss was exposed at the line of scrimmage by Alabama, and some concerns have arisen about their wide receiver depth. This is a big week for Lane Kiffin, as the recovery this week seems more significant for the Rebels than for Hogs. Couple that with the revenge factor from last years debacle in Fayetteville, and theres a lot of emotion in Oxford this week. This is a dangerous spot, and I have a feeling Arkansas regroups fast enough to steal another win over Ole Miss.
Prediction: Arkansas 31, Ole Miss 28 (Arkansas/under)

South Carolina (3-2, 0-2 SEC) at Tennessee (3-2, 1-1 SEC), Noon ET (ESPN2)
Announcers: Anish Shroff and Mike Golic Jr.
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Tennessee 31, South Carolina 27
Current Streak: Tennessee – 2
Current Streak in Knoxville: Tennessee – 1
Line: Tennessee -10.5
Over/Under: 54
Are the Vols on the verge of breaking out after hanging 62 on Missouri this week? The offense has settled in nicely with Hendon Hooker under center and a newly productive rushing attack with Tiyon Evans and Jabari Small. South Carolina has won three games and competed with Kentucky, and theres a sense of competence around this program despite a number of glaring holes on the roster. I expect Tennessees offense to be choppier this week, but theres a ceiling with this Gamecocks offense that isnt going to allow it to keep up with even a modest output from the Vols offense.
Prediction: Tennessee 37, South Carolina 20 (Tennessee/over)

Vanderbilt (2-3, 0-1 SEC) at (20) Florida (3-2, 1-2 SEC), Noon ET (SECN)
Announcers: Dave Neal and Matt Stinchcomb
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Florida 38, Vanderbilt 17
Current Streak: Florida – 7
Current Streak in Gainesville: Florida – 3
Line: Florida -38.5
Over/Under: 59.5
Florida closes out its SEC home schedule (yes, seriously) with a visit from Vanderbilt in a sandwich game between a disappointing loss at Kentucky and next weeks always-emotional battle with LSU. The Gators are facing some goal reassessment after a second conference loss last week, so this is an obvious flat spot given the opponent, kickoff time and upcoming schedule. A positive sign would be a more disciplined performance after committing 15 penalties and allowing a game-changing special teams touchdown last week in Lexington. This line seems like too many points, but I just cant pick Vanderbilt to cover against any decent team, especially after they should have lost to Connecticut last week.
Prediction: Florida 49, Vanderbilt 7 (Florida/under)

(2) Georgia (5-0, 3-0 SEC) at (18) Auburn (4-1, 1-0 SEC), 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Announcers: Noah Eagle, Rick Neuheisel and Aaron Murray
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Georgia 27, Auburn 6
Current Streak: Georgia – 4
Current Streak in Auburn: Georgia – 1
Line: Georgia -14.5
Over/Under: 46
The Deep Souths Oldest Rivalry is renewed with a revitalized Auburn team, fresh off of a statement win at LSU, hoping to snap a four-game losing streak to rival Georgia. The Bulldogs have allowed just 13 points in three SEC games this season, and the Tigers havent scored a touchdown in the first three quarters of either of the past two meetings in this series. Two potential absences for Auburns defense loom large, as edge rusher T.D. Moultry and linebacker Owen Pappoe may miss this game after being unavailable last week. Georgias quarterback situation is equally murky, but the drop-off from J.T. Daniels to Stetson Bennett IV has been largely immaterial. Auburn with a healthy defense could compete and ugly this game up, but there are just too many concerns to think they can match this Georgia defense stop for stop.
Prediction: Georgia 27, Auburn 10 (Georgia/under)

North Texas (1-3) at Missouri (2-3, 0-2 SEC), 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Roy Philpott and Deuce McAllister
Series History: Missouri leads, 1-0
Last Meeting: 1995 3 Missouri 28, North Texas 7
Line: Missouri -19
Over/Under: 68
Missouri is at a crossroads after last weeks miserable performance against Tennessee. Defensive line coach Jethro Franklin was fired following the game, but the rest of the October schedule, starting this week against North Texas, provide ample opportunity for this defense to stabilize. The Mean Green has become a lifeless program, failing to beat an FBS team yet this season after losing records in 2019 and 2020. The Tigers offense had to scrap its game plan a week ago after falling so far behind, but that unit has moved the ball pretty well this season. Even if the defense again has issues, it wont matter this week.
Prediction: Missouri 48, North Texas 21 (Missouri/over)

LSU (3-2, 1-1 SEC) at (16) Kentucky (5-0, 3-0 SEC), 7:30 p.m. ET (SECN)
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers and Cole Cubelic
Last Meeting: 2014 3 LSU 41, Kentucky 3
Current Streak: LSU – 2
Current Streak in Lexington: Kentucky – 1
Line: Kentucky -3
Over/Under: 52
Kentucky is back to looking like Kentucky. The 8Cats are running the ball well, playing good defense, and making big plays on special teams. The passing game is still largely dormant, but Kentucky is doing just enough to win. LSU is mentally wounded and banged up on defense, but going on the road may be good for this Tigers team with all the drama in Baton Rouge. Airing it out makes the most sense against this Kentucky defense, and thats been the only path to success for the LSU offense. I dont expect much of an LSU resurgence going forward, so my pick here is more about remaining skeptical of Kentucky despite the Wildcats 5-0 start.
Prediction: LSU 24, Kentucky 23 (LSU/under)

(1) Alabama (5-0, 2-0 SEC) at Texas A&M (3-2, 0-2 SEC), 8 p.m. ET (CBS)
Announcers: Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Alabama 52, Texas A&M 24
Current Streak: Alabama – 8
Current Streak in College Station: Alabama – 6
Line: Alabama -17.5
Over/Under: 52
What looked like a top-five matchup a few weeks ago is now a battle of No. 1 vs. an unranked Aggies team that has now lost to the teams picked to finish sixth and seventh in the SEC West. What does Texas A&M have going it for against Goliath? First, it shouldnt get blown off the ball like Ole Miss did last week. The Aggies can point to the Alabama-Florida game for proof that they can slow down Brian Robinson and the Crimson Tide rushing attack. Theres still Bryce Young to deal with, but thats the smoother path to success for Mike Elkos defense. The problem lies on the other side of the ball, as this offensive line is unlikely to have an answer for Will Anderson and the Alabama pass rush, and Zach Calzada is not going to be able to escape the pocket. Isaiah Spiller will make his usual one big play, but theres not much else coming from the Aggies offense.
Prediction: Alabama 35, Texas A&M 14 (Alabama/under)

Best Bets
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 16-9
Louisville -2.5 vs. Virginia
SMU -13.5 at Navy
East Carolina +10 at UCF
Ohio State -21 vs. Maryland
Illinois +10 vs. Wisconsin

The Best Game Ive Ever Watched On October 9:
Oct. 9, 2004: No. 1 USC 23, No. 7 California 17
USC won a share of the 2003 national championship, but it was almost derailed by an overtime loss at Cal. The rematch a year later was a battle of unbeaten teams and a battle of two highly-touted quarterback in the Golden Bears Aaron Rodgers and Trojans Matt Leinart. While the offensive stars were the most memorable of the 2004 Trojans, this USC team was also loaded on defense, which faced a difficult task in going against a future Super Bowl champion and multiple-time NFL MVP.

Leinart struck first, as a touchdown pass to LenDale White helped the Trojans build a 10-0 lead. Rodgers answered back in the second quarter, finding Geoff McArthur for a 20-yard score to cut USCs lead to 13-10.

After swapping touchdowns in the third quarter, California had three chances to steal the game in the fourth quarter, trailing 23-17. The first two were halted by a fumble and a short missed field goal. The last saw Rodgers drive the Golden Bears inside the USC 10-yard line with two minutes to play, but a sack and three incompletions allowed the Trojans to hold on and get revenge for their loss 54 weeks prior.

Rodgers missed on only two his first 31 pass attempts before the final three misfires, throwing for 267 yards on the day and sending his NFL stock soaring. California outgained USC 424-205, but turnovers doomed the Golden Bears. USC would go on to finish 13-0 and win the national title, while 10-1 California was denied a Rose Bowl berth by Mack Browns campaigning, instead losing disinterestedly in the Holiday Bowl to 7-4 Texas Tech.

Sundays Projected Top 10
1. Alabama (1)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Iowa (3)
4. Cincinnati (4)
5. Ohio State (7)
6. Michigan (9)
7. Oregon (8)
8. Penn State (4)
9. BYU (10)
10. Michigan State (11)
Dropped out: (6) Oklahoma

Trivia Answers
1. Louisiana-Monroe (2007)
2. 2010
3. Stevie Johnson


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